Bill Gates suggests the creation of 'Human Reserved' positions and the implementation of a tax on AI tokens.

      Bill Gates has introduced a concept he terms Human Reserved jobs, which are positions society would intentionally reserve for individuals even if AI could perform them. He compares this idea to a nature reserve, where development is limited to protect something valuable. He cites childcare and jury duty as roles that humans excel in, a notable stance considering that last year, he predicted AI would replace doctors and teachers within the next decade.

      His beliefs about the fundamental issues in the job market remain unchanged. “I’d love to be convinced that I’m wrong about the job market, but I’m not,” he remarked, asserting his willingness to risk his reputation on the notion that AI will have negative consequences for employment.

      His proposal comprises two elements. Some positions would be exclusively for humans, while others would provide temporary protection for workers who cannot realistically transition to different roles. He identifies education and healthcare as fields worthy of selective preservation instead of outright exclusion, presenting a more nuanced view than the headlines suggest. The intention is not to block AI from hospitals but to determine which responsibilities within them should remain human-operated.

      Gates establishes a limit on this initiative, stating that a maximum of 40% of jobs could realistically be reserved, which he considers “as high as I can get,” implying that the majority of the labor market will be left to its fate.

      He suggests that the method should involve taxation rather than prohibition. Gates advocates for taxing AI technologies and robots to diminish the financial incentive to automate, arguing that the current system "nudges you toward replacing people with machines" by imposing heavier taxes on labor than on capital.

      He is frank about the magnitude of the change. “I’m talking about a change to the tax system that’s greater than any in my lifetime,” he noted, which encompasses a significant span of fiscal history for someone born in 1955.

      The idea of a robot tax isn’t novel, as Gates proposed it in 2017 but received a lukewarm response from economists who contended it would penalize productivity instead of safeguarding jobs. What has shifted is not the argument itself but the increasing number of individuals anticipating its necessity.

      Gates brings up the concerns surrounding this issue, which is more than what many advocates typically do. He raises critical questions regarding who qualifies for a protected job, who makes the decision, how enforcement occurs, and the implications for countries that do not adopt such measures in competition with those that do, all without providing answers.

      This jobs discussion fits within a broader cautionary message. In an essay nearing 6,000 words, Gates outlined three risks he believes leaders are unprepared for: the disappearance of work, particularly for youth, the empowerment of criminals through enhanced capabilities, and the potential hindrance of children's development due to AI companions that fail to challenge them.

      He specifically sequences jobs that are likely to be phased out first, predicting that customer support, software engineering, and paralegal roles will disappear earliest, while automation will permeate construction and hospitality by the decade's end.

      His strongest evidence pertains to young workers, with findings applicable to both Europe and America. Research from Switzerland indicates a decline in job postings for entry-level positions, while a Harvard study revealed that AI-driven startups are hiring fewer junior employees and instead focusing on senior talent.

      However, not everyone interpreting the labor market shares this perspective. The CEO of Adecco, a company specializing in worker placement, argues that AI is transforming jobs rather than eliminating them, and some employers have discreetly rehired individuals they had previously replaced, often under less favorable conditions.

      Ultimately, what Bill Gates is advocating for is a deliberate choice regarding labor market dynamics rather than leaving it to chance. “I believe we need time to prepare for the period of social, political, and economic upheaval we are about to enter,” he stated, presenting a rationale for slowing down progress, an ambition that lacks evident mechanisms to achieve it.