SpaceX's IPO: the true challenge lies with OpenAI and Anthropic.

      The SpaceX IPO is poised to become the largest stock market debut in history this week, anticipated to raise approximately $75 billion with a valuation nearing $1.75 trillion, with shares set to begin trading on Nasdaq from Friday. However, the most significant aspect of Elon Musk’s rocket company's public offering may not directly relate to rockets or Musk himself, but rather its impact on the broader landscape.

      For the venture-capital sector, SpaceX signifies a thawing after a prolonged period of stagnation. Only 23 venture-backed tech companies went public in the US in 2025, a stark decline from 77 just four years prior, while the capital locked in private investments has had few options for liquidity.

      SpaceX’s oversubscribed debut, nearly four times over, provides the ecosystem with its first major payout in years: early investors, such as Antonio Gracias’s Valor Equity Partners, who hold approximately a 4 percent stake valued at nearly $70 billion at a price of $135 per share, along with Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Sequoia, are positioned to return tens of billions to their investors, which will likely fund the next wave of startups.

      The public offering will also create thousands of employee millionaires. The latest updates from the EU tech landscape, insights from our founder Boris, and some dubious AI art, are available for free every week in your inbox—sign up now!

      The implications for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are significant. Both organizations have confidentially filed to go public, and along with SpaceX, they contribute to an IPO pipeline that could potentially introduce $3.6 trillion of new stock to public markets.

      How SpaceX performs in its initial weeks will set the standard for how investors value the two AI labs and gauge the market's willingness to absorb such a large influx of equity at once. Wall Street has already identified a concern: an excess of shares compared to buyers.

      This situation transforms the debut into a genuine stress test rather than a celebratory moment. SpaceX aims for revenue multiples that exceed those of Palantir, which, as PitchBook’s Franco Granda noted, leaves "virtually no margin for error." Proponents highlight actual revenues, citing approximately $920 million a month from Google for Starlink capacity and about $1.25 billion a month from Anthropic for AI infrastructure.

      Skeptics recall Facebook's 2012 IPO, which faltered post-listing and stymied the new-issue market for over a year. A downturn now could affect OpenAI and Anthropic even before they set their prices.

      Structural concerns persist. Musk retains about 79 percent of the voting rights while owning roughly 42 percent of the equity due to a dual-class structure, which prompted one Danish pension fund to exclude the deal from its portfolio. Additionally, an array of opaque special-purpose vehicles has emerged to offer SpaceX exposure to investors unable to participate directly.

      This situation has not diminished demand. However, a more profound question posed by Caplight’s Javier Avalos is whether any company can "remain private for over 20 years, raise billions privately, and still have vitality once they go public." SpaceX is about to provide an answer, with OpenAI and Anthropic watching intently.