Replacing your petrol car with an electric vehicle (EV) will pay off in three years.

      Research published in Science reveals that discontinuing a petrol car in its first year and replacing it with a battery electric vehicle can reduce emissions by 58% over a 16-year period, achieving carbon payback in approximately three years. This advantage does not apply to highly efficient hybrids, vehicles with very low annual mileage, or areas with the least clean electricity grids.

      According to new findings in Science, retiring a petrol car early is more beneficial for the environment than continuing to drive it. By scrapping the vehicle within its first year and switching to a battery electric vehicle, emissions decrease by 58% over 16 years.

      The study, conducted by Elliott Campbell at UC Santa Cruz and Roland Geyer at UC Santa Barbara, analyzed over 400 combustion and electric vehicle models, taking into account grid composition, efficiency, mileage, battery capacity, and manufacturing emissions.

      The carbon payback period is around three years, which is the time required for the lower emissions from driving an electric car to outweigh the emissions from its production, including the battery.

      The term "retire" refers to scrapping the car, rather than selling it. Selling passes the vehicle to another driver, simply transferring the emissions rather than eliminating them.

      However, most coverage of this research fails to mention that the findings are not universally applicable. In fact, a reduction was only observed in 92% of the modeled scenarios, meaning 8% did not share this outcome.

      Hybrids are the most notable exception. Standard hybrids are so efficient that, in certain cases, replacing one early with a battery electric vehicle could actually lead to higher emissions, and the same concern applies to plug-in hybrids.

      The second scenario involves very low mileage. For vehicles driven less than approximately 4,383 miles annually for cars, 4,248 miles for SUVs, and 6,707 miles for trucks, the advantages of replacement do not materialize.

      The third factor pertains to electricity source, which varies significantly. If the local grid produces more than 970 pounds of CO2 per megawatt hour, the benefits of switching diminish. This point has been highlighted previously regarding coal-generated electricity usage for charging.

      The situation is different on the other side of the Atlantic. Electric vehicles in Europe are estimated to be about three times cleaner than their petrol counterparts based on the continent’s energy generation mix, making the case for early retirement stronger in countries such as France or Sweden as compared to Poland.

      The challenging aspect lies in the policy implications. If the benefits are derived from removing cars from the roads rather than passing them on, this research advocates for scrappage policies, which involve compensating individuals to dismantle functioning vehicles.