Main Capital €5.25 billion: wagering on stability amid the AI anxiety

      While public markets react fearfully to the idea that AI will undermine enterprise software, a modest Dutch company has successfully raised €5.25bn with the opposite belief. Main Capital argues that unexciting, essential software is precisely where significant value will be found in the coming decade.

      Charly Zwemstra has dedicated 23 years to acquiring software that most people overlook. Consider systems for hospital appointments, local tax records, and accounting processes—software that organizations seldom think about until it fails. This week, investors provided Zwemstra's firm with €5.25bn to continue this approach.

      Main Capital Partners, based in The Hague and focused on enterprise software investments, secured two new funds at their maximum limits in less than six months. Main Capital IX amassed €4bn, more than double its previous fund, while Main Foundation III gathered €1.25bn, also more than twice the size of its predecessor. Both funds experienced oversubscription.

      This expansion brings Main’s total assets under management to over €12bn, marking the largest private equity buyout fundraising ever conducted in the Netherlands.

      The scale of this achievement is remarkable, but the timing adds to the narrative.

      Fundraising amid market turmoil

      Main attracted this capital in a challenging market environment for software. According to Tech Funding News, the iShares software ETF has decreased by around 30% from its peak in September 2025. Major players like Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian have all lost significant market value since February. The prevalent concern is that AI-driven automation will weaken enterprise software from within.

      This apprehension has also impacted the buyout sector. Firms like Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners spent recent months reassuring their investors through communications and webinars, but Main's investors sought no such reassurances.

      The key factor behind their confidence lies in one statistic: over 23 years, Main has maintained a loss rate of well below 0.5%. In the private equity realm, where write-offs are commonplace, such a figure is nearly unheard of. With 38 exits yielding a weighted average gross return of 4.7x, Main’s impressive track record speaks for itself. Existing investors reinvested at over 120%, indicating they committed even more than prior levels.

      Hamilton Lane increased its investment as well, with new capital flowing in from sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, and insurers from the US, Asia, and the Middle East. Among these were the State Teachers’ Retirement System of Ohio and the Korean Teachers’ Credit Union. Main managed the entire fundraising process independently, without utilizing a placement agent.

      The unexciting foundation

      Main's approach is straightforward to outline but challenging to replicate. The firm acquires profitable software companies in specialized niches and then adds related businesses to create cross-border market leaders. It invests equity ranging from €5m to €150m and has conducted over 300 acquisitions, including approximately 100 platform deals and more than 200 follow-on investments.

      The portfolio includes over 55 companies and more than 15,000 employees across Europe and North America. None of this is glamorous, yet all of it is vital.

      Municipalities are unlikely to change their tax software casually, just as hospitals don't replace scheduling systems without good reason. The costs associated with switching are precisely what underpin consistent cash flows, even when popular SaaS companies face volatility.

      Main's model functions quietly in the background. Recently, the firm acquired a majority stake in Ferranti, a Belgian company that develops essential software for utilities, and merged its HR platform BCS with Timegrip to establish a pan-European payroll entity. Neither transaction garnered headlines, but both exemplify the firm's strategy in action.

      Zwemstra founded Main in 2003 after departing AlpInvest Partners and was an early participant in European software buyouts. Two decades later, this strategy appears less like a niche and more akin to a fortress.

      Seeing AI as an opportunity, not a threat

      Main views AI from a different angle compared to the broader market. While many perceive a threat to enterprise software, the firm regards it as a chance for acquisitions. "We’re at a turning point," Zwemstra stated. "AI is unlocking a new wave of growth and value creation opportunities."

      Main supports this assertion with proprietary data. The firm utilizes its own market-intelligence tools across its portfolio to monitor where AI generates lasting value and where it reduces the prices that incumbents can charge.

      The rationale is that AI and consolidation are now moving in a similar direction. A fragmented marketplace of small, essential software vendors becomes easier to consolidate as buyers seek fewer suppliers and more advanced products. Main believes it can deliver both.

      The product-markets encompass healthtech, govtech, infrastructure, and proptech, all rich with smaller vendors possessing valuable, regulated data that is difficult to replace. This data is crucial for making AI features effective, and it poses challenges for new entrants. Main bets that the incumbents it has already