Thrive Capital invests $100 million in Shopify, marking a unique public-market wager on AI-driven commerce.

      **TL;DR** Thrive Capital, led by Joshua Kushner, has invested around $100 million in Shopify, marking a significant public-market bet for the venture firm, known for supporting OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe. Shopify’s stock has dropped nearly 40% this year following guidance that pointed to slowing revenue growth. Thrive is positioning the investment as a wager on AI-driven commerce. Having raised a $10 billion fund in February, Thrive previously made $522 million from a contrarian investment in Carvana and is part of a growing group of venture firms venturing into public equities.

      According to Bloomberg, Thrive Capital has taken a stake of approximately $100 million in Shopify, based on sources familiar with the deal. This investment is significant not just for its amount—$100 million is minimal for a firm that raised over $10 billion for its most recent fund—but also for what it indicates about where leading venture investors see value today. Thrive, recognized for its support of OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe during their private phases, is now investing in a public company with a stock that has decreased 40% this year.

      The firm communicated to its stakeholders that the Shopify investment is a bet on the potential of artificial intelligence to enhance commerce. This aligns with a broader strategy Thrive has been exploring across its investments, positing that AI will significantly transform the economics of various industries, including online retail.

      **Crossover Investment**

      Thrive is among a select group of venture firms that have begun investing in public equities alongside their traditional startup investments. As an investment adviser, Thrive can deploy the same funds for both public and private investments, similar to Accel and Andreessen Horowitz, which have made comparable moves.

      A look at Thrive’s previous investments provides context. In March 2022, the firm purchased a substantial position in Carvana, an online car marketplace facing financial challenges, and ultimately made a $522 million profit on that investment, as per Bloomberg. This move was not conventional venture investing but rather a contrarian public-market strategy that proved successful.

      The reasoning behind the Shopify investment mirrors this strategy. Although Shopify's first-quarter revenue rose 34.3% year-over-year to $3.17 billion, the second-quarter guidance indicated growth would slow to about 27.5%, leading to a decline in stock prices. The shares are currently trading nearly 46% below their 52-week peak, but Thrive appears to see the decline as a favorable entry point rather than a red flag.

      **Investment Trends**

      Other venture firms are similarly making public investments. Accel, usually focused on early-stage software companies, has put money into Nebius Group, a cloud computing service. Sequoia Capital has increased its stake in Figma, building on its initial investment in the design tool as a startup back in 2019. Thrive itself has public stakes in companies such as Figma, StubHub, and Oscar Health, the health insurance provider co-founded by Kushner.

      These trends reflect a significant shift. Startups are taking longer to go public, with the median time from founding to IPO now exceeding a decade for many venture-backed firms. Meanwhile, the most valuable private companies, like OpenAI at $852 billion and Anthropic nearing $900 billion, carry valuations that afford less potential for growth compared to a publicly traded company like Shopify, which has faced stock declines due to merely slowing growth. In a landscape where AI valuations echo the dot-com bubble, underperforming public companies could present more attractive risk-adjusted returns than private unicorns.

      **Shopify's Strategy**

      Shopify has focused on moving upmarket in the past year. Originally catering to small and medium-sized merchants needing alternatives to Amazon, the company is now targeting larger retailers, anticipating that greater order volumes from these clients will drive growth beyond what its existing customer base can deliver.

      Central to this approach is the AI component. Earlier this year, Shopify introduced what it calls “agentic commerce,” a sales avenue that allows merchants to showcase products directly within AI chat platforms like ChatGPT. AI-driven orders on Shopify increased 15 times year-over-year in 2025, according to the company. The premise is that as consumers interact with AI assistants rather than traditional search engines, the infrastructure linking merchants to these assistants will become as vital as the storefront itself.

      This is the rationale underpinning Thrive's investment. They believe that while Shopify's current growth rate may not justify a higher valuation, AI will alter the economics of commerce in ways the market has yet to fully account for. Essentially, it represents a similar bet Thrive placed on OpenAI before many investors recognized the potential of large language models, but applied to a company that is already public, profitable, and has seen a 40% stock decline.

      **Overall Context**

      Thrive's latest fund, raised in February, is its largest at $10 billion. While the firm continues to lead private funding rounds, including significant investments in defense technology and