Trump signs a memorandum to facilitate regulations for three launches per day.

      Last year, the United States carried out 178 orbital launches and re-entries, but the White House now aims to achieve at least a thousand annually by 2030. On Thursday, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum instructing federal agencies to facilitate reaching that number by largely stepping aside.

      The memorandum directs them to accelerate the permitting process and environmental reviews, collaborate with private operators on launch infrastructure development, and ensure sufficient radio spectrum is available to accommodate the increased traffic.

      The mathematics is particularly intriguing; increasing from 178 to 1,000 launches over four years equates to approximately three launches every day, every day, from a national infrastructure that currently handles about one launch every other day.

      Environmental reviews are the main constraint the memorandum addresses directly. Launch sites are located along coastlines and close to protected habitats, and historically, each significant increase in launch frequency has necessitated a new assessment, a process the administration wishes to expedite.

      Spectrum allocation is a less obvious but potentially more critical consideration. Each launch requires telemetry and range-safety frequencies, and at a rate of a thousand launches a year, the allocation transitions from a mere formality to a logistical challenge.

      There is little doubt about which company stands to gain the most. SpaceX represents the vast majority of American launches, has invested over $15 billion in Starship, and aims to make rocketry akin to airline scheduling rather than isolated events.

      However, this ambition has faced hurdles. The latest Starship V3 flight concluded with the booster exploding, merely three weeks prior to the company’s anticipated public listing, illustrating that regulatory processes are not the sole factor affecting launch frequency.

      The memorandum does not seem to tackle the physical constraints involved. Launch pads, propellant infrastructure, and range capacity are limited, and expediting paperwork will not create additional launch facilities at Cape Canaveral.

      Moreover, the document reportedly does not come with any funding. Instructing agencies to co-develop infrastructure alongside the private sector is a policy guideline rather than a financial commitment, meaning that these agencies will have to finance from current budgets or rely on the operators.

      The rationale behind the ambitious target is based on satellite constellations. Starlink has significantly driven the increase in launch demand, but its financial viability is becoming more challenging as replacement cycles for aging satellites impact profitability.

      This ambition is not without precedent; the 178 launches already represent approximately six times the American launch rate of 2013, indicating that the momentum the memo seeks to amplify has largely been generated by reusable boosters without much assistance from the government.

      Setting a policy target can provide cover for agencies that might otherwise be hesitant. A regulator tasked with justifying a delay against a declared presidential objective of a thousand launches per year is in a different position compared to one applying a rule independently.

      Environmental organizations have previously protested increases in launch frequency at Starbase and Cape Canaveral, and nothing in the memorandum diminishes their ability to contest particular approvals in court. The White House has yet to reveal a timeline for the expedited reviews it seeks.

      The re-entry aspect of the target requires more attention. Achieving a thousand launches and re-entries annually entails a thousand controlled descents through civil airspace, each of which restricts corridors and redirects commercial flights.

      Air traffic control has already been quietly absorbing these costs, and it is the part of the system with the least flexibility. The memorandum does not indicate where the extra capacity will come from.

      Determining whether achieving a thousand is feasible is a different matter from whether it is a meaningful figure to pursue. It is a target that influences how agencies operate long before anyone assesses whether it was actually attained.