Anthropic's nearly $2 trillion IPO is based on a revenue projection for 2028.

      As reported by a Reuters exclusive, the initial public offering of the AI lab is reliant on an internal prediction that it will generate between $190bn and $200bn in revenue by 2028, a figure that has not been publicly disclosed and which bankers and investors are already using to support a valuation that may approach $2tn.

      The leap in revenue is the kind that typically makes sense only during a market boom. Anthropic's revenue run rate was approximately $47bn as of May 2026, up from around $9bn at the end of 2025, indicating that the 2028 target suggests a revenue increase of more than four times within just over two years.

      The near-term revenue figures are admittedly changing rapidly. The projected revenue for the second quarter of 2026 is at least $10.9bn, which is over double that of the previous quarter, and the company is reportedly aiming for its first quarterly operating profit, estimated to be about $559m.

      For a lab that has predominantly operated at a loss, achieving this would represent a significant turning point, and it provides a basis for bankers to assert that the forecasts are grounded in reality rather than mere speculation.

      Instead of basing Anthropic's valuation on its current earnings, bankers are allegedly utilizing enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples based on those 2028 projections, employing a two-year-forward methodology that is uncommon in public markets but has been used prior to the stock launches of Cerebras and SpaceX. This approach is designed for companies experiencing rapid growth that cannot be appraised based on present figures.

      Palantir trades at approximately 53 times its anticipated 2026 revenue, while SpaceX and Cloudflare are around 41.6 times. Applying stretched multiples to Anthropic's expected 2028 revenue makes the headline figures appear, if not entirely reasonable, at least consistent.

      However, the entire calculation relies heavily on future assumptions, presuming that the current enthusiasm remains intact long enough to meet the anticipated revenue figures. Not all are convinced it will. “Could they achieve a $2 trillion valuation? Yes, but I wonder if it will maintain that value over time,” said David Merkel of Aleph Investments, highlighting the discrepancy between what a booming market is willing to pay now and what it might accept in the following year.

      One concern lies in the cost structure. Heavy expenditures on GPUs, computing, and model training are impacting current profit margins, and the optimistic scenario is predicated on the belief that these costs will decrease as a proportion of revenue as the business grows. If this is not the case, the two-years-forward rationale may falter, as it trades current profitability for future growth.

      The discussion about valuation has been escalating for months. Anthropic has reportedly received investor interest at an $800bn valuation and is said to be targeting something closer to $900bn in a proposed $50bn funding round, with IPO discussions now approaching the previously far-fetched $2tn valuation.

      The broader concern is that the entire valuation is dependent on a forecast that may not hold in a potentially shifting market. Cheaper competitors are already posing a threat to the economic foundations of these valuations, and a two-years-forward multiple is only as reliable as the year it references.

      For now, the situation raises eyebrows, especially in Europe: impressive growth, genuine concerns regarding margins, and a valuation heavily reliant on a forecast that cannot yet be validated. Anthropic may indeed reach $200bn in revenue by 2028, and its recent performance lends more credibility to this ambition than in the past. However, the market is being asked to value the company as if this milestone is already guaranteed, and to do so two years before the actual financial results materialize.