Anthropic reaches a valuation of $1.2 trillion, surpassing OpenAI.

      Anthropic is currently the most sought-after stock in private technology and simultaneously one of the most challenging to acquire, which is driving its price upwards.

      According to Business Insider, shares of Anthropic are being traded on secondary markets at an implied valuation of $1.2 trillion, marking a staggering 550% increase over the past year. This valuation positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI, whose shares are valued at approximately $908 billion on the same platforms.

      The rapid increase is remarkable, as just three months ago, the market valued Anthropic at $1 trillion. During its last primary funding round, a Series H in May, the company's valuation stood at $965 billion.

      This valuation is built on an atypical foundation—there are very few sellers.

      Scarcity, not fundamentals

      Secondary markets operate effectively only when employees or early investors are willing to sell their shares. Currently, this is not the case. Brokers report a near-total lack of sellers, which alone drives prices higher, despite the absence of new revenue or products to support this rise.

      “Anthropic is the most sought-after company the venture secondary market has ever seen,” stated Javier Avalos, CEO of the trading platform Caplight. Glen Anderson from Rainmaker Securities bluntly noted that the demand significantly exceeds supply, leading to trades rarely being completed because “no one’s selling.”

      This tension has led to unusual behaviors. Some buyers have reportedly offered to trade their homes for shares of Anthropic. This is a clear indication that demand has significantly outpaced availability.

      The SPV problem

      Most transactions that do occur are funneled through special-purpose vehicles (SPVs), which aggregate investments from multiple buyers into single deals. Anthropic, however, is distancing itself from these vehicles. The company warns investors on its website to assume that any indirect access to its stock is not valid, and it has increasingly vocalized concerns about scams.

      Despite these warnings, the frenzy continues. Buyers are still flocking to the SPVs that the company publicly rejects, often incurring high fees to participate. Anthropic is navigating a market it neither controls nor can monitor, complicating efforts to determine the stock's value before an official listing.

      What $1.2 trillion actually buys

      Not much certainty. The secondary market prices represent illiquid, minority stakes that lack board representation and guarantees of an exit. Even early backers express caution. Matt Murphy of Menlo Ventures, one of Anthropic’s initial investors, describes secondary valuations as a “noisy signal,” although he acknowledges that the company's revenue has significantly surpassed its expectations.

      The competitive landscape adds additional noise. Interest in OpenAI has been rekindled since it released its GPT-5.6 models, led by a flagship called Sol. Nevertheless, brokers still observe roughly five buyers pursuing shares of Anthropic for every two interested in OpenAI. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s xAI recently closed a $20 billion funding round before it was integrated into SpaceX.

      Why it matters

      Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO in June, with a public listing anticipated within months. This is when the current scarcity may dissipate, flooding the market with shares and allowing the $1.2 trillion valuation to finally meet buyers who can walk away. The private market has previously seen inflated valuations, from SpaceX’s contentious assessments to OpenAI’s own trillion-dollar wait.

      The pressing question for Anthropic is whether a price established by a handful of eager buyers will hold up in the broader market. Its rapidly expanding Claude business will need to make the case.