The projection for humanoid robots in China has increased to 50,000.

      Morgan Stanley has once again increased its projection for humanoid robot shipments in China, reaching 50,000 for this year. The bank notes that these machines are moving beyond demonstrations and into actual manufacturing sites, retail outlets, and eateries.

      Chinese robots are transitioning from showrooms to operational environments. According to CNBC, Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for humanoid robot shipments in China for the second time this year, now anticipating 50,000 units by 2026.

      This increase is substantial. The bank began the year forecasting 14,000 units, then revised it to 28,000 in January, and has now nearly doubled that estimation again. The bank attributes this rapid growth to the accelerated shift from demonstration to commercial application.

      The underlying numbers of this prediction indicate that Morgan Stanley values China’s humanoid market at $2 billion for this year, with expectations of growth to $15 billion by 2030. It anticipates annual shipments could reach 446,000 units by then, an increase from a previous estimate of 262,000, according to SCMP. These projections account solely for external sales, excluding prototypes or robots used internally by manufacturers.

      Sheng Zhong, an equity analyst at the bank, commented, "Commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback indicate a quicker adoption of humanoids in China." In essence, there are genuine orders, government assistance is present, and components are available.

      On a global scale, the picture appears even more expansive. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the worldwide humanoid market will grow from approximately $3 billion in 2025 to $28 billion by 2030. Last year, only about 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide, according to one industry assessment, implying that the bank anticipates a significant increase.

      The deployment of these robots is becoming increasingly functional. Chinese manufacturers are hastening production and introducing humanoids in factories, convenience stores, and restaurants, moving beyond just exhibitions. Numerous companies, including the electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng, are aiming for mass production by year-end.

      Morgan Stanley’s own supply-chain analyses support this trend. Their analysts have identified factories, logistics centers, unmanned retail spaces, and interactive services as initial testing grounds. The narrative has shifted from presentations to operational settings.

      External observers note similar trends. Joe Ngai, McKinsey's Greater China chairman, remarked, “If you visit any Chinese factory right now, there’s more automation and robotics in use than anywhere else globally,” suggesting that humanoids might represent a potential “next big frontier” for investors.

      The ambitions for humanoid implementation extend beyond internal operations. BYD aims to deploy humanoids on showroom floors for sales support within a year or two, as stated by its second-in-command to Business Insider. The approach is no longer solely industrial but is beginning to engage with customers directly.

      Government involvement plays a critical role in this narrative. Beijing has prioritized “embodied AI,” referring to AI embedded in physical machines, as part of its agenda for the next five years. It has instructed local governments to provide startups with affordable land and office space and has encouraged banks to offer favorable lending terms.

      This support is reflected in the statistics; Chinese companies shipped over 80% of the world’s humanoid robots last year and occupied the top five positions by volume, as reported by Business Insider, referencing Omdia. Companies like Unitree led the charge, while the U.S. company Figure AI ranked seventh and Tesla placed ninth, with public sales of its Optimus robot expected to commence at the end of 2027.

      For investors, Morgan Stanley suggests that a parts supplier, rather than a robot manufacturer, may be a more promising opportunity. The bank highlighted Shanghai-listed Leaderdrive as a significant beneficiary and raised its 12-month target for the stock from 269 yuan to 464 yuan ($68). Leaderdrive supplies precision components to humanoid robot builders such as Ubtech and Galbot and could capture 40% of the global market this year.

      This aligns with the traditional philosophy of investing in essential components. In a competitive landscape with numerous robot brands, suppliers of parts like joints, gears, and hands are likely to succeed regardless of which brands dominate. The bank believes Leaderdrive could retain about a quarter of that market in the long run.

      The same reasoning is prompting robotics companies to swiftly pursue public offerings. A wave of listings is following the financial prospects, with companies like Seer Intelligent now trading on the Hong Kong market. Seer generates 18% of its revenue from international sales across more than 65 countries, a rare indicator of global reach beyond China. The two largest manufacturers, Unitree and AgiBot, are preparing to go public, potentially valuing both at around $13 billion.

      However, potential challenges remain. Politics could become a hindrance. Industry executives express concerns that geopolitical tensions and trade issues pose the greatest risks. Washington has grown increasingly wary of China's advancements in AI and the global reliance