The hope for extremely low-cost phones for children and seniors is essentially over due to AI.
The increasing demand for memory chips driven by AI is making it difficult to manufacture budget smartphones profitably.
The affordable $100 phone you intended to buy for your child's first device or hand down to a grandparent may soon become unattainable. The demand from AI for memory chips has rendered the entire budget phone market nearly impossible to sustain.
So, how severe is the situation?
Research firm Omdia forecasts that the cost of memory for phones priced under $100 will soar by 400% in the third quarter of 2026. If this prediction holds true, the materials cost for the most common configurations will leap from about $14 a year ago to around $70, according to the South China Morning Post.
Omdia’s senior research manager, Jusy Hong, candidly stated that current memory prices have already exceeded the total materials cost for budget smartphones (approximately $100) as observed last year.
During a webinar on Friday, she declared, “it is impossible to manufacture smartphones below US$100 at the moment… [or] in the near future.” Based on this forecast, it is expected that vendors may completely abandon this segment.
Instead, manufacturers could shift their focus to higher-priced mid-range devices, even as genuine consumer demand remains unfulfilled.
Why is this occurring now, and who is feeling the impacts the most?
The answer lies in the demand from AI. Memory chip manufacturers have shifted their focus to producing high-capacity chips for AI servers and data centers, thus depleting the supply for the less expensive alternatives needed for budget smartphones and the entire consumer electronics sector.
The average price of smartphones reached $577 in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous year. This led to a market downturn, with a 4% drop in global shipments in the second quarter. Omdia predicts a full-year decline of 12% in overall smartphone shipments, with the most significant decrease occurring in budget devices, as models priced under $400 anticipate a dramatic 22% contraction.
Some brands like Vivo have raised the price of the top storage variant of their iQOO 15 by 1,500 yuan, while Oppo and Xiaomi also experienced significant double-digit drops in shipments last quarter, according to IDC. Omdia’s Zaker Li noted that brands are cutting back on display and camera features to manage expenses; however, rising costs elsewhere are forcing retailers to increase prices instead.
Hong anticipates that the ultra-cheap market segment will eventually make a comeback once memory prices stabilize, although that may take a year or more.
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The hope for extremely low-cost phones for children and seniors is essentially over due to AI.
Analysts report that the costs of memory chips for budget phones have increased by 400% this year, rendering it nearly unfeasible to manufacture devices priced under $100 profitably at this time.
