New research warns that Europe's aspirations for sovereign AI may be hindered by restrictions on data centers.

      Europe's pursuit of sovereign AI has never seemed more pressing, yet the necessary infrastructure to support it might not be prepared. As Washington restricts access to advanced models and Brussels intensifies its push for European AI autonomy, a recent survey by Onnec cautions that the continent’s aspirations could be hindered by the fundamental challenges of constructing and energizing data centers.

      US limitations on access to sophisticated AI models have heightened the demand for domestic alternatives, prompting European providers to view sovereign cloud as a viable commercial opportunity rather than just a policy discussion.

      Onnec’s data indicates that this shift in perception is already reflected in industry expectations. The infrastructure specialist reported that 74% of data center operators see sovereign cloud as a major opportunity for European providers within the next three years. This insight is based on a survey of 300 senior decision-makers—150 in the UK, 50 in Ireland, and 100 across the Nordics—conducted for Onnec by Sapio Research from May 27 to June 12, 2026. All participants were involved in the design, management, or operation of data center facilities, the company noted.

      The underlying demand driving this optimism is tangible. Gartner projects that European investment in sovereign infrastructure-as-a-service will surge by 83% in 2026, increasing from $6.9 billion to $12.6 billion, as part of a global sovereign cloud IaaS market that the analyst estimates at $80 billion for this year.

      Policy initiatives are also aligning with this vision. The EU’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act, which was adopted by the Commission on June 3, aims to at least triple the bloc's data center capacity within five to seven years. Complementing this, the EU's AI gigafactory program is expected to increase the demand for facilities needed to train and operate advanced models.

      Public funding is already flowing in this direction. In April, the European Commission granted a €180 million framework to four European providers, allowing EU institutions to purchase sovereign cloud services and indicating that Brussels intends to back its words with contracts rather than just statements.

      However, according to Onnec, the challenge is in execution. Survey respondents identified power availability, planning delays, rising construction costs, supply chain issues, and skill shortages as significant barriers between demand and available capacity. They also pointed out the additional challenge of retrofitting existing facilities to accommodate the higher-density racks required for AI workloads, all while maintaining operations during upgrades.

      “Operators must stop viewing sovereignty merely as a policy issue. It is fundamentally an infrastructure issue,” remarked Matt Salter, global head of data centers at Onnec. “Sovereign cloud and AI can only become a reality if the foundational infrastructure is delivered on a large scale.”

      Salter emphasized that power availability, planning, skilled labor, and upgrading operational sites would ultimately determine Europe’s ability to meet sovereign cloud demand. These challenges are not hypothetical, as some operators have already halted UK projects due to energy costs and regulatory issues.

      In Salter's view, new capacity cannot depend solely on greenfield developments. “New constructions require time for planning, approvals, power access, and building, so Europe must also better utilize its existing facilities,” he said, considering the current infrastructure as an underutilized resource.

      However, retrofitting poses a more complex challenge. Upgrading an active data center for AI is difficult as it cannot simply be shut down and reconstructed, yet Onnec views it as an essential part of the solution if the region is to convert its ambitions into reliable, scalable, and resilient capacity.

      All of this occurs within a continent striving to reduce its dependence on American infrastructure, a theme threaded throughout the EU's recent tech sovereignty initiatives. Onnec believes that while the political commitment is strong, the critical question remains whether Europe can quickly secure energy connections, lay foundations, and train engineers to keep pace with these ambitions.