Main Capital €5.25bn: wagering against the AI hysteria.

      While public markets fear that AI will undermine enterprise software, a discreet Dutch company has successfully raised €5.25 billion betting on the contrary. Main Capital’s argument: mundane, crucial software is precisely where the next decade of value lies.

      Charly Zwemstra has dedicated 23 years to acquiring software that most people find unexciting—such as hospital appointment systems, municipal tax records, and accounting workflows. This is the type of software organizations hardly think about until it malfunctions. This week, investors contributed €5.25 billion to his firm to continue this exact approach.

      Main Capital Partners, based in The Hague, finalized two new funds at their maximum limits in just under six months. Main Capital IX secured €4 billion, over double the amount of the previous fund, while Main Foundation III reached €1.25 billion, also more than double its predecessor. Both funds were oversubscribed.

      Together, these funds push Main's assets under management past €12 billion, making this raise the largest private equity buyout fundraising ever conducted in the Netherlands.

      The scale is significant; however, the timing is the more important story.

      Raising amidst the panic

      Main secured this funding in a market that has turned against software. The iShares software ETF has decreased by around 30% since its peak in September 2025, according to Tech Funding News. Companies like Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian have all experienced substantial drops in value since February. The prevailing concern is straightforward: that AI automation will hollow out enterprise software.

      This anxiety has also unsettled the buyout sector. Companies like Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners have been attempting to reassure their investors through letters and webinars. However, Main's investors sought no such reassurances.

      The reason lies in a single statistic. Over 23 years, Main has maintained a loss rate significantly below 0.5%. In the realm of private equity, where write-offs are common, this is nearly unprecedented. With 38 exits achieving a weighted average gross return of 4.7x, their track record did the convincing. Existing investors committed over 120%, indicating they invested more than they had previously.

      Hamilton Lane increased its investment, and new funds also came in. This fresh capital originated from sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, and insurance companies across the US, Asia, and the Middle East, including the State Teachers’ Retirement System of Ohio and the Korean Teachers’ Credit Union. Main conducted the entire process without a placement agent.

      The unglamorous machine

      Main’s strategy is straightforward yet challenging to replicate. It acquires profitable software companies in specific niches and then integrates related businesses to create cross-border market leaders. The firm issues equity checks ranging from €5 million to €150 million and has completed over 300 acquisitions, which include about 100 platform deals and more than 200 build-ups.

      The portfolio includes over 55 companies and more than 15,000 employees across Europe and North America. None of these investments are glamorous, but they are all sticky.

      Municipalities don't easily switch tax software, and hospitals don't abruptly change their scheduling systems. This switching cost is crucial—it is why cash flows remain stable even when trendy SaaS names falter.

      This approach operates steadily in the background. Recently, Main acquired a majority stake in Ferranti, a Belgian developer of essential software for utilities, and merged its HR platform BCS with Timegrip to create a pan-European payroll group. Neither transaction made headlines, but both exemplify the strategy on a smaller scale.

      Zwemstra founded Main in 2003 after leaving AlpInvest Partners and was an early adopter of European software buyouts. Two decades later, the strategy appears less like a niche and more like a stronghold.

      Betting that AI helps, not harms

      Main's perspective on AI contrasts sharply with the market’s view. While others perceive a threat to enterprise software, the firm identifies it as an acquisition opportunity. “We stand at an inflection point,” Zwemstra stated. “AI is unlocking a new wave of growth and value creation opportunities.”

      The firm supports this assertion with its own data. Main utilizes proprietary market-intelligence tools across its portfolio to monitor where AI is generating sustainable value and where it is pressuring the prices that incumbents can charge.

      The rationale is that both consolidation and AI are heading in the same direction. A fragmented market comprised of small, essential software vendors is easier to consolidate when buyers prefer fewer suppliers and more capable products. Main believes it can provide both.

      These product markets encompass healthtech, govtech, infrastructure, and proptech, all filled with small vendors that hold valuable, regulated data that is hard to replace. This data is precisely what makes an AI feature effective and is something that new competitors cannot easily replicate. Main is banking on the incumbents it already owns starting the AI competition with a clear advantage.

      The broader market may be