OpenAI plans to submit its IPO application this week, aiming for a $1 trillion launch.

      TL;DR: OpenAI is set to confidentially file for an IPO as early as this week, aiming for a fall launch with a valuation that could reach $1 trillion, assisted by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Odds in prediction markets have shifted greatly in favor of OpenAI, while Anthropic’s chances of going public first have plummeted from 69% to 20%.

      The crucial competition in the AI sector has shifted from developing superior models to being the first to access public markets, with OpenAI now in the lead. According to CNBC, the company is preparing to confidentially submit a draft of its IPO prospectus this week, seeking a potential debut as soon as September at a valuation that may surpass $1 trillion.

      This timeline surprised traders in prediction markets. Before the Wall Street Journal initially reported the filing plans, traders on Kalshi estimated OpenAI’s chances of outpacing Anthropic at only 32%, which has since surged to 83%. On Polymarket, the likelihood of Anthropic listing first dropped sharply from 69% to 20% within hours.

      “Timing the entry into public markets is crucial in this ongoing arms race,” stated Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. The reasoning is simple: the first major AI company to go public attracts most institutional funds designated for the sector, sets the benchmark for valuations, and compels competitors to align their pricing.

      OpenAI’s latest private funding round, which concluded in March, raised $122 billion, resulting in an $852 billion valuation, largely supported by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, along with ongoing investment from Microsoft. Since then, secondary market trades have further increased its implied value.

      This timeline is not coincidental. Recently, a California jury dismissed all claims in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, ruling Musk delayed filing too long. This verdict lifted a legal cloud that had been looming over the company’s governance and transition to a for-profit model. Although Musk referred to it as a “calendar technicality” and intends to appeal, the market interpreted it as a positive sign.

      Anthropic, OpenAI’s main competitor, was largely anticipated to go public first. The company’s annual revenue has reportedly surged from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion by the end of March, significantly driven by demand for its coding tools. It has also been in preliminary discussions with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley regarding an IPO expected to take place as early as October.

      However, OpenAI's decision to file first changes the landscape. Should it launch in September, Anthropic might have to either hasten its own process or postpone until 2027, at which point its trillion-dollar secondary market valuation may have diminished. The first major AI IPO will attract substantial institutional interest and funding, leaving the second one with the leftovers.

      The implications are wider than just OpenAI and Anthropic; SpaceX also plans to file this year, aiming for a valuation of around $1.5 trillion. Combined, these three firms could represent approximately $3 trillion in new public market capitalization, a volume that could challenge investor interest and alter Wall Street's technology funding strategies.

      For OpenAI, the IPO would signify an extraordinary evolution from its founding as a non-profit research lab in 2015 to a for-profit entity bolstered by over $200 billion in funding and creating consumer products that impact hundreds of millions. Investors will need to determine if its rapidly growing revenue, which is still overshadowed by spending, can support a trillion-dollar public market valuation.

      The forthcoming filing will be confidential, meaning the public won't access OpenAI's financials until it opts to reveal them. Nonetheless, the implication is evident: in the race for AI funding, OpenAI is ready to step into the public market.