Blue Owl has multiplied its investment in SpaceX by 10 times and has already divested half of its stake.

      The co-CEO of the alternative asset manager revealed the returns during a Q1 earnings call, highlighting the SpaceX gains as a hedge against potential software credit losses due to AI disruption, offering insight into how private credit firms are adapting in the AI age.

      Blue Owl Capital has divested about half of its SpaceX investment at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, realizing approximately 10 times its initial investment on the sold portion while retaining the rest. Co-CEO Marc Lipschultz shared this on an analyst call on Thursday for Q1 2026. "Specifically at SpaceX, we made around 10 times our money on that investment," said Lipschultz, as reported by Reuters. "We’ve sold about half of it at a $1.25 trillion valuation, still holding onto the other half."

      Blue Owl was one of the first institutional lenders to SpaceX and later invested in equity, acquiring shares of two different classes in 2021, according to a 2025 securities filing. The $1.25 trillion valuation for the first half correlates with the post-merger figure established when SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, through an all-stock deal in February 2026, integrating Grok, X (previously Twitter), and xAI's GPU infrastructure into the merged entity.

      If Blue Owl maintains its remaining stake until SpaceX goes public, expected in June 2026 with a projected valuation of $1.75 trillion and a $75 billion capital raise—the largest IPO in history—the unrealized gains would further increase.

      The strategic perspective: SpaceX as a credit hedge

      The most significant aspect of Lipschultz's statement was not merely the 10x return but the context in which he mentioned it. He explicitly depicted the SpaceX gain as a potential offset to losses in Blue Owl’s software loan portfolio, concerned that advanced AI models could disrupt some of the software companies they have lent to, leading to defaults.

      This viewpoint highlights a tension in the private credit industry in 2026. Companies like Blue Owl, Ares, Apollo, and Blackstone have developed substantial direct lending portfolios for technology and software firms, many of which are currently facing disruption from the very AI products that are inflating the valuations of companies like SpaceX.

      Lipschultz's mention of SpaceX equity gains offsetting potential software credit losses serves not only as reassurance to analysts but also reflects a structural recognition that private credit firms now face multiple risks from AI disruption. Equity gains in the AI infrastructure sector are one mechanism to address these risks.

      Blue Owl's shares surged after the earnings call, as investors responded positively to both the SpaceX announcement and the firm's Q1 performance: fee-related earnings were $0.25 per share (up 14% year-on-year), distributable earnings were $0.19 per share (up 11%), and the firm raised $11 billion in total capital during the quarter, with 67% coming from institutional investors and $3 billion from private wealth sources.

      The SpaceX IPO context

      Blue Owl's announcement comes at a crucial moment in the SpaceX IPO journey. As we reported, SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC on April 1, 2026, aiming for a $75 billion raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion—over 2.5 times the Saudi Aramco IPO record of $29.4 billion set in 2019.

      The roadshow is anticipated to commence around June 8, with a major investor event slated for June 11. Leading underwriters include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. If the IPO prices at $1.75 trillion, it would launch as one of the most valuable publicly traded companies globally.

      The $1.25 trillion valuation at which Blue Owl sold half its stake is noteworthy; it is the valuation derived from the SpaceX-xAI merger rather than a market transaction. Blue Owl was thus realizing gains based on a valuation set by an all-stock merger rather than through a fully liquid market price.

      The difference between the $1.25 trillion valuation and the IPO target of $1.75 trillion represents the remaining paper gain on the half-position Blue Owl still holds, estimating an additional $440 billion in valuation if the IPO achieves the high end.

      For institutional investors in private credit funds, Blue Owl's SpaceX narrative exemplifies the transformation of the asset class over the last ten years. What started as senior secured loans to established businesses has increasingly involved equity co-investments, preferred shares, and structured products, allowing funds to capture the upside potential of private companies moving toward an IPO.

      The disclosed 10x return on SpaceX equity, announced on the same day as a Meta bond offering and an Anthropic fundraising nearing $900 billion, highlights how the financial landscape of 2026 has become centered around a single underlying bet: the belief that the current generation