The aspiration for extremely low-cost phones intended for children and seniors is, in essence, over, primarily due to AI.
The demand for memory chips due to AI has made it increasingly difficult to manufacture budget smartphones.
The $100 phone you might have considered purchasing for your child's first device or gifting to your grandmother could soon be out of reach. The growing demand from AI for memory chips is pushing the entire budget smartphone category towards obsolescence.
How serious is the situation?
Research firm Omdia reports that memory prices for smartphones under $100 are expected to soar by 400% by the third quarter of 2026. Should this prediction hold true, the cost of materials for the most common configurations will rise from just $14 last year to around $70 (as reported by the South China Morning Post).
Omdia’s senior research manager, Jusy Hong, stated that current memory prices have already exceeded the total material costs for budget smartphones (approximately $100) as they stood a year ago.
Her assessment, shared during a webinar last Friday, was clear: “it is impossible to manufacture smartphones below US$100 at the moment… [or] in the near future.” Consequently, vendors may completely withdraw from this segment.
Instead, they may shift their focus to more expensive mid-range devices, even as genuine consumer demand remains unmet.
What is causing this shift and who is most affected?
The primary culprit is AI. Memory chip manufacturers have redirected their production towards high-capacity infrastructure that supports AI servers and data centers, leading to a shortage of cheaper chips on which budget smartphones and the broader consumer electronics industry rely.
The average price of smartphones reached $577 in Q1 2026, a 12% increase from the previous year. This price surge has triggered a market slowdown, resulting in a 4% decline in global shipments in Q2. Omdia forecasts a full-year downturn in overall smartphone shipments of 12%, with the budget segment suffering the most, particularly as models under $400 may see a significant contraction of 22%.
Vivo has already increased the price of its iQOO 15’s top storage configuration by 1,500 yuan, while Oppo and Xiaomi have experienced double-digit shipment declines last quarter, according to IDC. Zaker Li from Omdia observed that brands are reducing display and camera specifications to manage costs. However, overall rising prices are limiting options and driving up retail prices.
Hong believes that the ultra-affordable segment could eventually return once memory prices stabilize, though this might take a year or more.
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The aspiration for extremely low-cost phones intended for children and seniors is, in essence, over, primarily due to AI.
Analysts report that the expenses for memory chips in budget smartphones have skyrocketed by 400% this year, rendering it virtually unfeasible to profitably produce devices priced under $100 at this time.
