US computer science enrollment declines for the first time in two decades.

      Computer science had long been a reliable choice. For two decades, enrollment in the US consistently increased. However, during the 2025-26 academic year, it experienced a decline.

      The Change

      This observation comes from Jacob Light, an economist at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, whose research was reported by Business Insider. His extensive dataset encompasses over 50 million course sections from more than 1,019 US colleges since 1996. For the first time in nearly twenty years, there was a decrease in the proportion of enrollments in computer science.

      On average, enrollment in computer science classes decreased by around 4.6% year over year at most schools. Nationally, the decline is evident as well, with the National Student Clearinghouse reporting an 8.1% drop in undergraduate computer-science enrollment at four-year institutions in autumn 2025, equating to a fall from approximately 659,700 students to 606,100.

      From Growth to Decline

      The backdrop of this decline is the significant growth in previous years. According to National Science Foundation data, the number of computer science bachelor's degrees more than doubled over a decade, rising from about 56,000 in 2014 to 122,000 in 2024. This marks the first notable interruption in that trend.

      The timing is pertinent as the drop coincides with AI assistants becoming widespread, capable of writing, debugging, and completing coding tasks. Additionally, the entry-level software job market has softened.

      Caution

      However, this aspect may be overlooked in headlines. Light does not attribute the decline directly to AI. He views the data as descriptive rather than causal and suggests five potential factors. These include a sluggish job market for junior developers, skepticism about the worth of a CS degree, lower math proficiency, demographic shifts tied to immigration, and the growth of data science.

      The data does not clarify the individual impacts of these factors. Furthermore, computer science has historically experienced cycles of growth and decline, so a drop isn't unprecedented, and enrollment remains above its 2022 levels.

      What It Means

      Despite these disclaimers, the trend is significant. Students are interpreting the same signals as the job market. Companies like Verizon are downsizing, and JPMorgan's CEO has indicated that AI has already reduced a third of certain jobs. Some demand is shifting to skilled trades, raising concerns that the field developing AI may lose talent essential for future advancements.

      Conversely, there is an opposing viewpoint. The head of Google DeepMind asserts that a STEM degree still greatly enhances effectiveness when working with AI. Light concurs that many graduates will find substantial value in holding such a degree. Whether this is merely a temporary setback or the beginning of a broader reassessment remains to be seen, as students evaluate a degree against the prevailing culture of programming. Future enrollment figures will provide further insight.