Masayoshi Son claims that AI will incur costs of $5 trillion annually by 2040, asserting that discussions about a bubble are ridiculous.

      "Each year by 2040, the cost will reach $5 trillion, or 800 trillion yen; you might think this is unbelievable, but I am certain that's what it will take." This was Masayoshi Son on Tuesday at SoftBank’s annual conference in Tokyo, as he informed attendees of the anticipated annual investment required for developing artificial intelligence. However, he did not explain how he derived that figure.

      His reasoning was based on a ratio rather than calculations. “The business model will be sustainable because by 2040, if AI revenue constitutes 20% of global GDP, spending 800 trillion yen annually will be negligible,” he stated, a sentence that effectively conveys its point within the first four words.

      When confronted with a question that consistently follows him, he was straightforward. “To question whether AI is a bubble is ridiculous. I doubt that those who ask that are fully aware of what AI entails.”

      This sentiment is not new for Son. He has previously labeled the same inquiry as blasphemy and told shareholders during the group's June annual meeting that it was an affront. The intensification lies in the adjectives rather than the argument.

      Underneath his strong rhetoric is a financial statement marked by unusual focus. SoftBank’s total investment in OpenAI is expected to surpass $60 billion before 2026 concludes, partly financed by a $40 billion bridge loan secured through a consortium of banks.

      This expenditure has been ongoing for two years. SoftBank has invested tens of billions into OpenAI, financed data centers, and acquired stakes in robotics firms, with the declared goal of transforming the group into a fundamental platform for the era of AI rather than just an investor.

      Son’s past successes are why people still attend. He was an early supporter of Alibaba, introduced the iPhone to Japan's mobile market, and also invested in WeWork, which ultimately went bankrupt.

      The energy forecast presented during Tuesday’s speech is likely to be the most memorable. Son predicted that AI data centers will require three terawatts of generation by 2040, which he suggested is 1.8 times the current total global power consumption, initially supplied by gas until nuclear fusion takes over.

      Fusion currently doesn't exist as a commercial energy source anywhere globally. Son believes it will ultimately be the more affordable and cleaner option once it is developed. When asked about alternatives, he responded, "Will we use solar energy from space as Elon Musk suggests? We might utilize both, but if you ask me, fusion will provide the cheaper and cleaner energy on earth," having already ruled out orbital data centers as merely speculative rather than a genuine solution.

      He went on to make another bold assertion. By 2040, Son claimed that 100 trillion AI agents will make autonomous decisions, take actions, and communicate with one another without human intervention. "We will transition from a human-centered world to an agent-centered world,” he asserted. “The time when humans are the predominant life form on earth will conclude. For better or worse, this will occur and it cannot be prevented."

      None of the three predictions—financial, energy, and the emergence of agents—were accompanied by a supporting model. They were presented with conviction, which has historically been central to Son's approach.

      The market that has to value all this remains uncertain. AI companies have seen their worth soar while the investment needed to sustain them has significantly increased, and the lingering question, which Son dismisses as absurd, is whether the returns will ever justify the expenses.

      SoftBank itself serves as an ongoing case study regarding this issue. Earlier this year, the group briefly surpassed Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable listed company, a title it last held in February 2000, just before its stock plummeted by roughly 90%.

      At 68, Son has requested another decade to fully realize his vision. The $5 trillion figure, without any presented calculations, is now on record for anyone wishing to verify it in 2040.