Visa states that investment in AI and digital commerce are driving the global economy.

      The payments company's midyear outlook predicts a 2.4% global growth in 2026, attributing this to a boom in investment and competitive online pricing, which helps mitigate the impact of rising energy costs. Visa, which processes a significant portion of card transactions worldwide, offers a cautiously optimistic perspective on the economy's direction.

      According to Visa's Business and Economic Insights, global growth is expected to reach 2.4% in 2026, driven by a surge in business investment in artificial intelligence and renewable energy, which offsets the financial pressure of increasing energy prices on consumers. This estimate, derived from Visa's proprietary transaction data and economic modeling, is on the more conservative side compared to other forecasts.

      The IMF's April projection anticipated 3.1% global growth for 2026 based on purchasing-power parity, while the World Bank, which employs a different methodology, estimated growth at 2.5%, aligning closely with Visa's prediction. The differences in figures primarily stem from methodological variations rather than fundamental disagreements, highlighting that this is Visa's perspective based on its own operational data.

      Visa observes that the trend indicates adjustment rather than decline. Wayne Best, Visa's chief economist, noted, “As digital commerce continues to transform shopping and payment methods, consumers are discovering more ways to compare prices and manage their budgets, thereby contributing to inflation stabilization.” He pointed out a significant rise in business investment, with companies enhancing AI capabilities, investing in cleaner energy, and strengthening supply chains at levels not witnessed since 2010.

      The report identifies three key factors supporting economic stability. Firstly, Visa describes consumers as adapting rather than succumbing to financial pressures. Despite rising costs, Visa’s data indicates that discretionary spending remains relatively constant, showing early signs of stabilization. Consumer behavior has shifted towards seeking deals, which increasingly occurs online, facilitating price comparisons and the search for cheaper options.

      This leads to the second factor, which is Visa's unique assertion that digital commerce is actively helping to control inflation. In smaller, peripheral cities, online adoption has surged, nearly doubling from around 31% to 56% in the nearly 600 cities analyzed, including diverse markets like Bern and San Juan. Visa argues that in areas with higher online penetration, price competition intensifies and inflation rates decrease, alleviating pressure on households in light of rising energy costs.

      The third factor resonates with those observing the technology sector: a broad-based investment boom that Visa characterizes as the strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010. Capital expenditure among the world’s largest economies—the US, EU, and China—is on the rise as businesses strive to enhance AI capabilities, transition to cleaner energy, and secure strategic supply chains.

      In that context, the broader data supports this observation. Hyperscaler capital expenditures are projected to exceed $690 billion in 2026, over a one-third increase from the previous year, with significant investments directed towards data centers and their operational power. This substantial growth is putting pressure on electricity grids globally, from Denmark to China, highlighting the tension between the clean-energy transition that Visa incorporates into its positive narrative and the AI demand propelling investment.

      This same dynamic is influencing the digital commerce landscape. Online shopping is not only geographically expanding; its underlying mechanics are evolving, with AI increasingly determining which stores consumers see, complicating the clear connection Visa suggests between online penetration and open price competition.

      Visa's outlook comes with typical corporate forecast disclaimers: it reflects the views of the company's economics team rather than its management and relies on proprietary data not available for public scrutiny. Nonetheless, the underlying message is clear. Visa believes that consumers are resilient, online competition is helping to ease price pressures, and a significant wave of investment not witnessed in 15 years is driving economic growth.