The iPhone 18 Pro may not be excessively priced, but I would still advise caution.
J.P. Morgan indicates that the anticipated price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro may be less significant than originally thought.
Last week, Tim Cook emphasized that Apple hardware prices, including those for iPhones, are likely to rise since the company is running out of methods to absorb escalating costs. The primary pressure point is memory, with prices for RAM and storage noticeably increasing throughout the technology sector.
This situation has led to concerns about a substantial price hike for the iPhone 18 Pro. However, new findings from J.P. Morgan suggest a more reassuring outcome. Based on a screenshot of the firm's estimates shared by Max Weinbach on X, it appears that Apple might mitigate some of the memory costs through savings in other areas.
J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates that the expense for iPhone memory, which includes NAND and DRAM, could rise from $65 in 2025 to $114 in 2026, and further to $228 in 2027. This trend correlates with the cycles for the iPhone 18 Pro in 2026 and the iPhone 19 Pro in 2027. Such an increase is considerable and clarifies why Apple might struggle to maintain stable prices indefinitely.
On a more positive note, Apple may find ways to reduce costs elsewhere. J.P. Morgan forecasts that costs for non-memory components could decrease from $449 in 2025 to $426 in 2026, and further to $384 in 2027. The report also highlights projected savings of $15 in 2027, potentially arising from Apple using more of its proprietary components, likely including its own 5G modem. Currently, the iPhone 17 Pro operates on a Qualcomm modem, while the iPhone 18 Pro is expected to transition to Apple's C2 modem.
Thus, the report suggests a price increase of around $50 to $100 for the 18 Pro compared to existing models, rather than the several-hundred-dollar rise some previous reports had indicated.
Nonetheless, it’s important not to celebrate just yet. This remains an analyst's projection and not an official pricing strategy from Apple. Earlier reports have mentioned a possible starting price of $1,399 for the base iPhone 18 Pro, leaving plenty of uncertainty.
Even if J.P. Morgan's estimates are more accurate, it doesn't guarantee that the iPhone 18 Pro won't experience a noticeable price increase. Apple has managed to keep prices stable thus far, partly due to having secured memory inventory before the price surge in 2026 and leveraging its extensive scale to negotiate supply agreements that many competitors are unable to replicate.
The challenge lies in the fact that the RAM and storage market has altered significantly since then. Major AI corporations are investing heavily to secure memory and storage for data centers, maintaining high demand and driving prices up. If this trend persists, Apple may find that its capacity to absorb the costs has limits. This report is comforting, but it offers no guarantees.
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The iPhone 18 Pro may not be excessively priced, but I would still advise caution.
Increasing costs for RAM and storage continue to pose a challenge for Apple; however, J.P. Morgan thinks that the price hike for the iPhone 18 Pro might be less significant.
