Brussels intends to set aside two-thirds of the EU mobile-satellite spectrum specifically for European companies.

      The proposal set to be revealed on Wednesday will permit Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper to bid only for the remaining third of the EU's 2 GHz mobile-satellite band. The European Commission is planning to allocate two-thirds of the future mobile-satellite services spectrum to European operators, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

      Details are anticipated to be confirmed during a meeting of commissioners in Brussels on Wednesday; however, the sources warned that the structure may still be subject to change prior to the formal announcement. The relevant spectrum pertains to the 2 GHz mobile-satellite services (MSS) band, specifically the 30 MHz frequency pair between 1980-2010 MHz and 2170-2200 MHz that allows mobile devices and vehicles to maintain a connection in areas lacking terrestrial mobile network coverage. The current licenses, awarded in 2009 to Inmarsat (now Viasat) and Solaris (now EchoStar), will expire in May 2027.

      The allocation after 2027 is the subject of Wednesday’s decision. EU member states, operating through the Commission, manage the band collectively, which facilitates a uniform bloc-wide reservation. This two-thirds split represents the most definitive industrial policy measure the Commission has utilized in the space sector so far. The reserved segment would be available exclusively to companies registered in the EU, and both the United Kingdom and Norway would also be eligible to bid.

      Operators behind the IRIS2 project, comprising a 290-satellite multi-orbit constellation being developed by the SpaceRISE consortium—which includes SES, Eutelsat, and Hispasat, with contractors like Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, and OHB—are set to benefit from the European share. The 12-year IRIS2 concession was signed in December 2024, with the project estimated to cost around €10.5 billion, of which approximately €6.5 billion will come from public funding. Government services are expected to commence in 2030.

      This decision aligns with a broader European initiative towards what Brussels refers to as “strategic autonomy” in space, driven by two interrelated concerns. The first is the reliance on Starlink, which has been underscored by Elon Musk's public threats to withdraw service from Ukraine and his political ties to Donald Trump's administration. The second concern involves a larger trend in European tech policy, where Brussels has gradually been tightening restrictions on US firms’ access to strategically sensitive sectors, from cybersecurity AI tools to cloud sovereignty to chip manufacturing equipment. The reservation of the 2 GHz band is a clear indication that satellite communications are included in these restricted categories.

      Starlink and Kuiper are not excluded by the proposed terms; the remaining one-third of the band will be accessible to non-EU bidders through a standard competitive selection process. Starlink's direct-to-cell service, which is already operational in the US, could utilize the European MSS spectrum for broader operations in Europe. Meanwhile, Kuiper, still at the constellation deployment stage, is aiming for direct-to-device services as a potential revenue avenue in the latter half of the decade.

      Viasat and EchoStar, the current license holders, find themselves in a challenging position. As US-listed companies, they would fall into the non-EU third under the proposed terms, despite currently holding the spectrum. Viasat has been actively lobbying over the past 18 months for an extension of its existing S-band spectrum, which is primarily utilized for the European Aviation Network in partnership with Deutsche Telekom.

      It remains uncertain whether incumbents can gain access to the European tranche through joint ventures or changes in corporate structure; this issue is not likely to be fully addressed in Wednesday’s announcement. The 2 GHz band is too limited to independently support a service of Starlink's scale. However, it provides the harmonized, interference-protected, regulated layer that mobile carriers need for their direct-to-device traffic.

      By reserving two-thirds of that layer for European firms, the addressable market for Starlink and Kuiper in Europe will be reduced to a one-third segment. The long-term impact is more structural than absolute: Brussels intends for European direct-to-device services to be preferentially viable, rather than rendering American options impossible.

      The Commission is expected to publish the formal proposal on Wednesday afternoon, Brussels time.