Musk claims that SpaceX's AI will surpass rocket earnings by September and will be trained using the company's personnel.

      SpaceX held a 30-minute all-hands meeting on X this past Tuesday. During the session, Elon Musk made two interconnected statements. The first was a numerical claim: AI revenue will surpass all other sales by next month. The second was a procedural assertion: SpaceX will train Grok using its own information, which includes data on its employees.

      Analyzing the numbers

      Looking at Musk's initial assertion, it requires some scrutiny. According to Business Insider, SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, with AI revenue at $2.56 billion. Connectivity generated $4.29 billion, while space products contributed $962 million. This means non-AI revenue amounted to $5.25 billion. For AI revenue to surpass this total, it must more than double, assuming other revenue streams remain unchanged. Musk is aiming for this by September, and he seemed conscious of the skepticism surrounding his claim, stating, “Not probably, definitely,” as he corrected his earlier hedge mid-sentence. He also mentioned that AI would “significantly exceed” other revenue in the fourth quarter.

      Trainings involving employees

      The second assertion raises some concerns. Musk stated, “We’re going to be training Grok on the sum total of all SpaceX information,” and then remarked, “So in a way, it will be trained on you.” He presented this as a safety measure rather than merely a means to gather data, emphasizing that the staff constitutes “some of the very best humans on Earth.” He believes that a model developed from this group should reflect good values. “You will effectively be the parents of the AI. It will inherit your thoughts and ideas and beliefs, and I think that’s a good thing.”

      Lack of specific information

      However, crucial details are missing. SpaceX hasn’t clarified which employee data is included, how it will be collected, or if employees can opt out. The company did not respond to a request for comment, leaving a significant promise tied to a vague definition.

      A worrying precedent

      There’s a recent example that did not end well. Meta started tracking employee keystrokes and mouse movements in April to train its models but halted the program in June after private conversations and performance data became accessible across the company.

      The need for data

      The motivation isn’t just about sentiment; it’s about availability. AI companies have largely tapped into accessible internet data, and now they seek insights into actual human computer usage—information that agents require. SpaceXAI launched Grok Bot on the same day, which consists of agents that log into applications to complete multi-step tasks. To train something to operate like a coworker necessitates capturing recordings of coworkers performing their jobs.

      The intertwined announcements

      Thus, the two claims are essentially one: the revenue goal relies on the agent product, which in turn depends on training data sourced from employees.

      SpaceXAI’s evolution

      SpaceX acquired xAI just before its listing in June and rebranded as SpaceXAI. Its initial public earnings report indicated AI accounted for about one-third of its revenue. This spending reflects its ambitions, as the company is buying Cursor for $60 billion, committing to Nvidia hardware, and planning the establishment of data centers in orbit. Musk concluded on a promising note, asserting that anyone at SpaceX wishing to journey to the Moon or Mars will have that opportunity.

      Reasons for caution

      Currently, Grok isn't performing well; it lags behind OpenAI and Anthropic on various major benchmarks. This is concerning for a company hinging a significant part of its revenue on it. Musk's AI projects have also faced challenges and have a history of stalling; for instance, Grokipedia, which aimed to outperform Wikipedia, eventually ceased updates.

      The nature of ambitious promises

      SpaceX is known for grand promises, having previously floated the idea of lunar factories, which Musk himself acknowledged sounded outrageous. However, Musk's September claim differs because it is verifiable. In about six weeks, SpaceX will either announce AI revenue exceeding $5.25 billion, or it will not. Unlike the lunar factory concept, this statement comes with a deadline, making the employee data issue a pressing question that staff should be raising now.