SpaceX's most optimistic supporter predicts a valuation of $10.5 trillion.

      SpaceX has been added to the Nasdaq 100. On the same day, a Wall Street analyst valued the company at $10.5 trillion. A well-known investor estimated a 90 percent chance of a market crash.

      SpaceX has many supporters on Wall Street, with Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale being the most optimistic. He initiated coverage this week, setting a price target of $800, as reported by Bloomberg. This figure is the highest on Wall Street and approximately 430 percent above Tuesday's price.

      If this target is met, SpaceX would reach a valuation of about $10.5 trillion, which would be double that of Nvidia, currently the world's most valuable company at $4.7 trillion. For now, SpaceX is valued at under $2 trillion.

      The bet is based on AI rather than rockets. The surprising aspect is Gesuale’s projection of where the revenue will originate. SpaceX generated $19 billion in revenue last year, but he anticipates this figure will grow to $5.2 trillion by 2035, largely independent of its rocket or Starlink operations.

      Instead, his argument hinges on AI. He predicts that SpaceX will start selling computing power, beginning with data centers on the ground and later expanding to servers in space. According to his projections, AI will become the dominant business segment by 2027 and account for approximately 94 percent of revenue by 2035.

      Others are not as optimistic. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, is well-known for identifying market bubbles. He stated this week on Morningstar that a crash for SpaceX is about 90 percent likely, as reported by Business Insider.

      Grantham dismissed several aspects of the argument as "utterly inconceivable," noting that its AI efforts seem inferior in comparison to those of OpenAI and Anthropic. He also disregarded plans to mine asteroids and colonize Mars, expressing skepticism about the significant productivity increases the narrative assumes. The company suffered nearly $6 billion in losses last year.

      The disagreement centers on the true nature of SpaceX. Gesuale acknowledges the risks, noting that a series of launch failures could cause the stock price to drop to $125, below its $135 float price, which would also impact expectations for orbital AI and Starlink Mobile.

      The actual market response was muted. SpaceX shares fell about 5 percent on Tuesday to around $151, coinciding with its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. This decline occurred despite index funds preparing to purchase shares, as reported by The Information. Whether SpaceX is a rocket firm, an AI enterprise, or merely a bubble remains to be seen, and the market will take time to clarify this.