Apple's foldable iPhone might launch this fall, but you may have difficulty acquiring one.
Apple's excitement around the foldable iPhone might encounter a launch shortage
Apple's debut foldable iPhone could experience a situation reminiscent of the iPhone X moment this fall. A new analysis by industry expert Ming-Chi Kuo indicates that the anticipated iPhone Ultra (the foldable iPhone) might be announced alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, but preorders and sales could be delayed due to expected early production limits.
Kuo forecasts that Apple might produce around 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones in the latter half of 2026. However, the timing presents an issue. Only 0.5 million to 1 million units are likely to be available in the third quarter, aligning with Apple’s usual preparations for the September iPhone launch. In contrast, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are expected to have about 20 million to 22 million units ready during that time.
Apple might replicate the iPhone X strategy
Long-time Apple users may recognize this scenario. In September 2017, Apple revealed the iPhone X alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, but preorders didn't commence until late October, with sales starting in November. This limited early production was due to significant hardware innovations brought by the iPhone X, including an OLED all-screen design, Face ID, and the TrueDepth camera system.
The foldable iPhone could find itself in a similar predicament. Earlier reports highlighted production hurdles related to hinges, although more recent updates indicated that Apple has resolved many of those issues. Nonetheless, Kuo’s latest shipment predictions imply that Apple may fall short of having adequate units for a complete retail rollout in September.
Initial supply could be challenging
The foldable iPhone is anticipated to be priced high, with Kuo estimating the cost to be approximately $2,300 to $2,500. Despite this, early demand is likely to be strong. He mentions that the device might sell out rapidly after preorders begin, with delivery timelines extending to 4 to 6 weeks or even longer through December.
Apple also seems to have confidence that demand will persist beyond the initial model. Bloomberg previously reported that the company is already planning a second generation of the foldable iPhone for 2027, just one year after the first is expected to launch. This initial scarcity could still create a resale challenge in the near term, as a limited first batch, an innovative foldable design, and heightened launch enthusiasm may enable scalpers to demand significant premiums.
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Apple's foldable iPhone might launch this fall, but you may have difficulty acquiring one.
Ming-Chi Kuo states that Apple's foldable iPhone might follow the strategy used for the iPhone X, with a reveal in the fall, followed by delayed availability and limited supply.
