Spotify contests Kalshi and Polymarket following suspicions that a song's chart performance appeared manipulated.

      Spotify has deleted approximately 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" after the track's unexpected surge to the top of its US daily chart coincided suspiciously with a bet on the prediction market Kalshi. The company has also requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo from their websites and clarify that neither platform has a partnership with Spotify.

      The song had been lingering near the top of the chart for weeks, appearing more like a long-standing hit rather than a new sensation, which made its sudden jump peculiar. From Sunday to Monday, June 28 and 29, the streams of "Earrings" increased by nearly 70%, enabling it to rise from fourth to first place on Spotify's US daily chart for the first time during its release.

      Following Spotify's intervention, it has settled back to number three after the streams responsible for the spike were removed, a situation that echoes recent concerns about manipulated content appearing undetected on Spotify's charts.

      The scrutiny originated from within the betting market itself. Kalshi listed a contract related to which song would be the most streamed in the US during June, accruing approximately $3 million in trading. In the week leading up to the surge, traders had estimated only about a 2.5% chance that "Earrings" would finish June at number one, meaning that anyone who purchased that outcome at a lower price could potentially gain around 20 times their stake.

      Trader Caleb Davies, who analyzes Spotify chart data for his bets, was the first to identify the anomaly. He calculated the Sunday-to-Monday increase as an 11.24 sigma event, suggesting the odds of it occurring randomly were about one in 77 octillion, a figure so far beyond normal variations that it resembles more of a fingerprint than a chart position.

      Spotify's own investigation determined that bots contributed significantly to the disputed plays. There is no indication that Todd or his team were involved in the manipulation. The financial incentive was solely on the trading side, with those who inflated the streams set to benefit from a market that had deemed the outcome unlikely.

      Kalshi had already settled the bets based on the flawed count before Spotify identified the issue. Spotify commented that "all streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation" and that it maintains "best in class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams," stating that it does not pay out royalties for manipulated plays. A source at the company informed The Hollywood Reporter that Spotify would implement added checks to its charts before publication. Kalshi also mentioned that it is "in touch with Spotify and actively investigating this matter."

      This incident emerges as prediction markets seek to integrate more deeply into entertainment reporting, a move that has drawn its own scrutiny since Polymarket revealed a $3 million theft linked to a third-party vendor breach earlier in the year. Kalshi has formed content partnerships with CNN and Fox News, while Polymarket has collaborated with the Golden Globes, further complicating the situation of a music chart being exploited for profit.

      Both platforms have faced regulatory challenges in Europe this year regarding their licensing status, and Kalshi has also dealt with a case involving an editor affiliated with MrBeast who was accused of trading based on insider knowledge of the creator’s videos. Kalshi stated it introduced new integrity measures in June, such as risk scoring for high-risk markets and expanded whistleblower tools, reporting more than 150 investigations and over 100 suspected insider trades blocked in the first quarter.

      Whether these measures would have detected this scheme remains untested, as the manipulation occurred on Spotify's platform rather than Kalshi’s own order book. The challenge Spotify now faces is structural: once a chart position can be converted into a cash payout, anyone able to artificially inflate a stream count has a motive to do so.