The global consensus is that China is leading in the AI competition.

      When asked globally who is leading in the AI race, an unexpectedly high number of respondents now point to China. In a survey conducted by the London consultancy Public First across 15 countries, a significant majority in 11 of those countries indicated they believe China surpasses the United States in AI capabilities and innovation. The research involved over 18,000 participants, with countries such as Canada, Britain, and France—some of America's closest allies—ranking China at the top.

      This reflects a change in perception rather than a direct assessment of the technology's performance. However, perceptions are significant and indicate a notable shift. According to the Stanford AI Index, the difference in performance between leading AI models from the US and China has narrowed to just a few percentage points.

      The public appears to have taken note of reports highlighting cost-effective and proficient Chinese AI models, leading them to believe the competition is more competitive than what Washington might prefer to acknowledge. The survey included both advanced economies like Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the UK, as well as emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria, with the belief that China is in the lead prevalent in both groups.

      Yet, here's the interesting part: being viewed as the most capable does not equate to being the most trusted. When Public First asked which models people actually had faith in, the results were more complex. Respondents primarily trusted models from their own countries, with Japan being viewed as the most reliable source overall, followed closely by the US. Despite being perceived as leading in capability, China did not rank first in trust, revealing divided opinions that included both strong trust and significant distrust. Additionally, 19 percent of non-Americans expressed mistrust towards American models.

      This disparity between admiration and trust encapsulates the entire issue. People may believe that China excels in AI but are hesitant to share their data with them.

      A backlash in the West is starting to form. In the United States, the overall sentiment regarding AI has shifted from being strongly positive two years ago to barely positive today. In the UK, net positivity among young adults aged 18 to 24 decreased from 62 percent in 2023 to 46 percent in 2026. Conversely, optimism remains much stronger in Asian and emerging markets, highlighting a growing divide between AI experts and the general public.

      These findings underscore a global desire for AI development that aligns with national interests. Over three-quarters of those surveyed emphasized the importance of keeping their data within their own borders, favoring digital sovereignty amid ongoing disputes over which AI models should be globally used. However, pragmatism prevails; many individuals who expressed distrust in US models continue to use platforms like ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini. While they may perceive China as winning the race and prefer localized data practices, they still opt for whatever solutions are most effective.