A report cautions that it is 'magical thinking' to assume the UK's AI surge will not disrupt climate objectives.

      A recent report from the University of Cambridge has cautioned that the UK's ambition to lead in AI could jeopardize its climate objectives unless immediate steps are taken. According to the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy at the University, the unchecked expansion of AI could lead to a 25-fold increase in the energy consumption of the global tech sector by 2040, placing immense pressure on power grids and worsening carbon emissions.

      Even the most conservative projections indicate a five-fold increase over the next 15 years. The authors of the report claim it is “magical thinking at the highest levels” to believe that nations like the UK can excel in AI while simultaneously achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

      Currently, data centres contribute nearly 1.5% of global emissions, but this could escalate to 8% by 2040, overtaking emissions from air travel, according to the findings. In certain countries, the share of energy consumed by computing is even higher. For example, in Ireland, data centres now account for as much as 20% of electricity usage.

      Despite climate commitments from major tech companies, emissions from the sector are rapidly increasing. The report indicates that carbon emissions from Google and Microsoft have surged by 51% and 41%, respectively, since 2019. However, it emphasizes that the true environmental impact is likely greater due to the lack of transparency from Big Tech, inconsistent emissions reporting, and insufficient independent audits to validate these companies' claims.

      “We are aware that the environmental consequences of AI will be significant, but tech giants are intentionally vague about the energy demands associated with their goals,” stated Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan, the lead author of the report and an AI specialist.

      “There needs to be immediate action from governments to ensure that AI does not disrupt climate objectives, rather than solely relying on tech firms with promises of economic growth,” he added.

      UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has recently extended support to AI companies.

      In January, AI data centre developers Vantage Data Centres, Nscale, and Kyndryl committed £14 billion collectively to advance AI infrastructure throughout the nation. Amazon Web Services (AWS), Blackstone, and CoreWeave are investing substantial sums into expansive new data centre facilities, while Nvidia has teamed up with local businesses to enhance the UK’s computing capabilities.

      Overall, the UK is positioning itself as a global leader in AI. Nonetheless, the report highlights a lack of oversight. It urges the UK’s energy authority, Ofgem, to set stringent energy efficiency requirements for data centres and recommends that government departments link AI funding to the use of clean energy.

      The researchers also criticized the UK’s new AI Energy Council for not including voices from civil society. “The Council is currently made up solely of energy organizations and tech companies,” the report observes.

      Professor John Naughton, chair of the Minderoo Centre’s advisory board, called for increased transparency regarding the impacts of AI. “Every megawatt allocated to AI data centres will be a megawatt that cannot be used for housing or manufacturing,” he stated. “Governments must be honest with the public about the unavoidable energy trade-offs that will result from a stronger focus on AI as a driver of economic growth.”