What will triumph and what ought to triumph at the Oscars this Sunday?

What will triumph and what ought to triumph at the Oscars this Sunday?

      Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande in Wicked Universal Pictures / Universal Pictures

      Film critics are notoriously unreliable when it comes to predicting Oscar winners. Often, we make predictions based on our emotions instead of rational analysis. When it comes to discerning what industry professionals might consider the best films of the year, we are frequently too close to the cinematic landscape to make accurate judgments. However, it is worth noting that very few people are adept at forecasting the Oscars, even those whose profession revolves around it. Every year brings significant surprises, and regardless of the methodology or analytical approach employed, we must remember that the voting patterns of 10,000 individuals, each with their own distinct reasoning for filling out a ballot, are ultimately at play. It's essentially just a desperate attempt to find clarity.

      Last year was somewhat straightforward. This year, there's no dominant film like Oppenheimer capturing awards effortlessly. The competition is broader, with fewer frontrunners. Important categories such as Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Picture feel almost like toss-ups. This award season is one of the most competitive in years—partly because many of the movies that initially seemed to be frontrunners have faced significant backlash and controversy. This is challenging for critics, but it’s exciting for those looking forward to Oscar night.

      As we approach this Sunday’s Academy Awards, we're making a sincere effort to predict the winners across 20 categories—excluding the shorts, as your guesses are as good as ours. Consider our predictions as informed speculation—insights drawn from a mix of historical performance, precursor awards, and instinct. Regarding our preferences, where we express what we genuinely wish would win, we feel more confident. If there's one thing critics excel at, it's offering opinions, often unsolicited, and expressing them with unwarranted certainty.

      BEST PICTURE

      Ralph Fiennes in Conclave Focus Features / Focus Features

      Nominees: Anora; The Brutalist; A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; I’m Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked

      Will win: With a remarkable 13 nominations, the Golden Globe-winning musical Emilia Pérez seemed set to claim victory for a moment. But then, its star's awards campaign spectacularly collapsed. Will voters lean towards the ambiguous, over three-hour intensity of another Globe winner, The Brutalist, or will they opt for the more mainstream and charming spectacle of Wicked?

      The odds appear to have shifted towards them striking a balance with Anora, which had its frontrunner status diminish for a while but rebounded with wins from the producing, directing, and writing guilds—a historically formidable combination of precursor support. Yet, we are taking a bold stance by putting our faith in Conclave, a well-received, middlebrow drama with classic Academy appeal that recently won the BAFTA and SAG ensemble award. Its idealistic election storyline should resonate with Sorkin-inspired liberals still recovering from their November 5 wounds.

      Should win: How often does the best film of the year also happen to be the most entertaining? Director Sean Baker skillfully intertwines a heartbreaking story of thwarted ambition with a screwball comedy reminiscent of Old Hollywood. Anora, akin to its titular character, deserves the happy ending that now seems within reach. It would be the most deserving Best Picture winner since... well, last year.

      BEST DIRECTOR

      Adrien Brody in The Brutalist A24

      Nominees: Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

      Will win: Baker’s recent victory at the Director's Guild gets him closer to an Oscar for the creator of Greg the Bunny. However, it’s likely that the Anora director will snag the Original Screenplay win earlier in the night, leading voters to share the accolades and honor Brady Corbet’s grander directorial efforts in The Brutalist—especially considering the appealing connections between the ambitious artist depicted onscreen and the one behind the camera.

      Should win: The tonal balance Baker achieves in Anora merits recognition, as does Coralie Fargeat’s audaciously striking sensory assault in The Substance, which serves as a pure showcase of directorial talent. Nevertheless, there’s no denying that The Brutalist’s sweeping historical vision surpasses an uneven script, brought to life by Corbet’s coaxing of performances and his masterful handling of limited resources. He accomplishes a lot with relatively little.

      BEST ACTOR

      Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown Searchlight Pictures

      Nominees: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

      Will win: It’s a tight race between Adrien Brody’s BAFTA

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What will triumph and what ought to triumph at the Oscars this Sunday?

Wicked? Dune? Anora? Here’s our forecast for this year’s Academy Award winners — and our wishes for who takes home the honors.