Spotify takes a stand against Kalshi and Polymarket following concerns that the chart performance of a song appeared manipulated.

      Spotify has eliminated around 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” after the track's unexpected surge to the top of its US daily chart coincided suspiciously with a wager on the prediction market Kalshi. The company has also requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo from their websites and clarify that there is no partnership between Spotify and either platform.

      Prior to this, the song had been lingering near the top of the chart for several weeks, which made its sudden rise peculiar. Between Sunday and Monday, June 28 and 29, streams of “Earrings” increased by nearly 70%, enough to elevate it from fourth to first place on Spotify’s US daily chart for the first time in the song’s history. Following Spotify's intervention, the song has since dropped to number three as the streams that caused the spike were removed, raising concerns about fraudulent content bypassing Spotify’s charts unobserved.

      The scrutiny originated from the betting market itself; Kalshi had offered a contract linked to which song would receive the most streams in the US during June, generating around $3 million in trades. In the week leading up to the spike, traders had estimated only about a 2.5% chance that “Earrings” would end June at number one, meaning those who bought that outcome at a low price and saw it succeed could potentially earn around 20 times their investment. A trader named Caleb Davies, who analyzes Spotify chart data for his own bets, was the first to notice the anomaly. He assessed the Sunday-to-Monday increase as an 11.24 sigma event, suggesting the odds of it occurring randomly were roughly one in 77 octillion—so far beyond the norm that it resembled more a fingerprint than a chart position.

      Spotify's investigation revealed that a significant portion of the disputed plays had been generated by bots, with no indication that Todd or his team were involved in any manipulation. The financial motivation lay entirely with the trading side; those who artificially inflated the streams stood to gain from a market that had deemed the outcome improbable. Kalshi had already settled bets based on the erroneous count before Spotify identified the issue.

      In a statement, Spotify remarked that “all streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation” and highlighted its “best in class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams,” emphasizing that it does not pay royalties associated with manipulated plays. A company source informed The Hollywood Reporter that Spotify plans to implement additional checks on its charts prior to publication. Kalshi stated that it is “in touch with Spotify and actively investigating this matter.”

      This incident occurs as prediction markets are increasingly trying to integrate themselves into entertainment reporting, an effort that has garnered scrutiny since Polymarket revealed a $3 million theft linked to a breach by a third-party vendor earlier this year. Kalshi has formed content partnerships with CNN and Fox News, while Polymarket has teamed up with the Golden Globes, making the situation surrounding a manipulated music chart for financial gain even more uncomfortable.

      Both platforms have also encountered regulatory challenges in Europe this year regarding their licensing status, and Kalshi faced a separate incident involving a MrBeast editor accused of trading on insider knowledge about the creator’s videos. In June, Kalshi claimed it instituted new integrity measures, such as risk scoring for high-risk markets and enhanced whistleblower tools, reporting over 150 investigations and blocking more than 100 suspected insider trades in the first quarter. However, it remains unclear whether these measures would have detected the scheme, as the manipulation occurred on Spotify’s platform rather than on Kalshi’s own order book. The underlying issue Spotify now faces is structural: the opportunity to convert a chart position into cash payouts incentivizes anyone capable of inflating a stream count to attempt it.